Using predictive models to improve the quality of medical care for patients with chronic kidney disease in primary care settings

Zhmurov V.A., Ermakova P.A., Ermakova A.A., Zhmurov D.V., Tolstouhova N.V.

Tyumen Medical University, Tyumen, Russia

Objective. Determination of the clinical significance of current prognostic models (using the Cox prognostic model as an example) and their use in practical healthcare to improve the life expectancy and quality of life of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD).
Materials and methods. The study analyzed clinical and laboratory data from 70 CKD patients in the Internal Medicine Department of a City Outpatient Clinic in the Tyumen region. Clinical, laboratory, and instrumental parameters were assessed. indicators that predict CKD progression were calculated, followed by the formation of the Cox prognostic model.
Results. Using the Cox prognostic model, groups of CKD patients with low, moderate, and high risk of disease progression were identified, which is a more accurate prognostic method compared to routine patient questionnaires. The prognostic model, using statistically reliable criteria, demonstrated its effectiveness and utility in healthcare practice for assessing the rate of CKD progression.
Conclusion. Adapting the Cox model for outpatient practice is an important step toward improving the quality of CKD patient monitoring.

Keywords

About the Authors

Vladimir A. Zhmurov – Dr.Sci. (Med.), Professor, Head of the Department of Propaedeutics of Internal Medicine, Tyumen Medical University. Address: 54 Odesskaya St. Tyumen, 625023; e-mail: zhmdenis@yandex.ru
Denis V. Zhmurov – Cand.Sci. (Med.), Associate Professor, Department of Propaedeutics of Internal Medicine, Tyumen Medical University. Address: 54 Odesskaya St. Tyumen, 625023.
Polina A. Ermakova – Teaching Assistant, Department of Propaedeutics of Internal Medicine, Tyumen Medical University. Address: 54 Odesskaya St. Tyumen, 625023
Anna A. Ermakova – Teaching Assistant, Department of Propaedeutics of Internal Medicine, Tyumen Medical University. Address: 54 Odesskaya St. Tyumen, 625023
Natalya V. Tolstoukhova – Cand.Sci. (Med.), Associate Professor, Department of Propaedeutics of Internal Medicine, Tyumen Medical University. Address: 54 Odesskaya St. Tyumen, 625023

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